EU chief to meet Trump in Scotland in push to avoid a transatlantic trade war

• The European Union's Ursula von der Leyen will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Scotland on Sunday to discuss trade relations.
• “I think we have a good 50/50 chance. That's a lot,” Trump said.
• Confirmation of the meeting comes amid a sense of growing optimism about the prospect of a tariff breakthrough.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with U.S. President Donald Trumpin Scotland over the weekend, seeking to reach a framework trade agreement shortly before a 30% tariff on EU imports comes into effect.

In a post on social media platform X on Friday, the EU's von der Leyen said she had agreed to meet with the U.S. president on Sunday “to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong.”

Trump later confirmed the meeting would take place as he arrived in Scotland on Friday evening, saying “we'll see if we can make a deal.”

“I think we have a good 50/50 chance. That's a lot,” he added.

It comes amid a sense of growing optimism about the prospect of a tariff breakthrough, with sources telling CNBC that the current base-case scenario for a deal includes a 15% tariff on EU imports to the U.S.

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 30% on EU goods from Aug.1, prompting the EU to consider countermeasures as part of its response.

The U.S. and EU have the largest bilateral trade and investment relationship in the world, representing almost 30% of global trade in goods and services, and accounting for 43% of global gross domestic product (GDP), according to EU figures.

Trump's four-day and golf-heavy Scotland visit is also expected to see him hold an informal meeting with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Unlike the EU, the U.K. recently struck a trade deal with the Trump administration, one which is centered on a 10% tariff baseline on British goods arriving in the U.S.

Hopes of the U.S. and EU averting a transatlantic trade war from Aug. 1 have been buoyed at least in part by the recent announcement of a framework agreement between the U.S. and Japan.

The U.S.-Japan deal, which Trump described in a social media post as “perhaps the largest Deal ever made,” includes a baseline tariff rate of 15%.

Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief euro zone economist at Capital Economics, said Friday that a similar framework for the EU might be seen as case where a bad deal is better than no deal.

“Reports this week suggest that the EU and US are on the brink of agreeing a trade deal with a 15% baseline tariff on US imports from the bloc. It's hard to spin it as a good deal, but it would at least avoid much higher US tariffs and retaliation from the EU,” Allen-Reynolds said in a research note.