Hong Kong

2024-11-04 23:03

IndustriUBS Election Playbook: Trading All Scenarios
Republican Scenarios: Red Sweep + "Bad Trump": Stagflation risk • Long: Gold, Energy, EU Defense • Short: EU Banks, China stocks Split Congress + "Good Trump": US Exceptionalism • Long: US/EU Cyclicals, Trump Financials • Short: Gold, US Defensives Democrat Scenarios: Blue/Split Congress + Harris: • Long: Homebuilders, Renewables • Short: Republican Winners, Trump stocks Key themes: Tax policy, housing focus Lower global rates expected Cross-Asset Impact: Rep Win: Higher volatility, US outperformance Dem Win: Lower USD, higher global growth Watch sectoral rotation closely Risk Alert: Position sizing crucial given multiple scenarios. #Election2024 #Trading #Markets #Stocks
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UBS Election Playbook: Trading All Scenarios
Hong Kong | 2024-11-04 23:03
Republican Scenarios: Red Sweep + "Bad Trump": Stagflation risk • Long: Gold, Energy, EU Defense • Short: EU Banks, China stocks Split Congress + "Good Trump": US Exceptionalism • Long: US/EU Cyclicals, Trump Financials • Short: Gold, US Defensives Democrat Scenarios: Blue/Split Congress + Harris: • Long: Homebuilders, Renewables • Short: Republican Winners, Trump stocks Key themes: Tax policy, housing focus Lower global rates expected Cross-Asset Impact: Rep Win: Higher volatility, US outperformance Dem Win: Lower USD, higher global growth Watch sectoral rotation closely Risk Alert: Position sizing crucial given multiple scenarios. #Election2024 #Trading #Markets #Stocks
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