2024-11-09 07:41

IndustriEvents in focus (AEDT):
Today’s Asian calendar is relatively full, although none of it could be considered top tier data as we’re still absorbing the turbulence from yesterday’s election. But we do have two central bank meetings with a combined 50bp of cuts likely in the pipeline. A 25bp cut from the BOE seems practically a given, but thanks to the recent UK budget it remains up in their air as to whether the central bank will want to signal further cuts today. If they don’t GBP/USD could regain some bullish traction but it is unlikely to fully recoup its losses from yesterday. A sympathy bounce perhaps? Whereas a dovish cut could see GBP/USD bears have another crack at probing the 200-day SMA around the 1.28 handle. A 25bp cut is also expected, with Fed fund futures implying a 99.5% probability of such a move. It will be interesting to see if the Fed strikes a more cautious tone with Trump lined up for a return in January. Although Another viable option is to provide a dovish cut today and cement a 25bp cut for December, to get any cuts done and dusted before we see what the new administration brings.
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Events in focus (AEDT):
| 2024-11-09 07:41
Today’s Asian calendar is relatively full, although none of it could be considered top tier data as we’re still absorbing the turbulence from yesterday’s election. But we do have two central bank meetings with a combined 50bp of cuts likely in the pipeline. A 25bp cut from the BOE seems practically a given, but thanks to the recent UK budget it remains up in their air as to whether the central bank will want to signal further cuts today. If they don’t GBP/USD could regain some bullish traction but it is unlikely to fully recoup its losses from yesterday. A sympathy bounce perhaps? Whereas a dovish cut could see GBP/USD bears have another crack at probing the 200-day SMA around the 1.28 handle. A 25bp cut is also expected, with Fed fund futures implying a 99.5% probability of such a move. It will be interesting to see if the Fed strikes a more cautious tone with Trump lined up for a return in January. Although Another viable option is to provide a dovish cut today and cement a 25bp cut for December, to get any cuts done and dusted before we see what the new administration brings.
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