摘要:No 684 - The start of a media offensive
BANDSFinancial
磐石金融有限公司( BANDS Financial Limited )在香港注册成立,是一家持有香港证监会(SFC)2号牌照的期货经纪公司,业务涉及中国以外全球大部分活跃期货及期权市场。
Overnight the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 61.2 in May from 60.7 in April, beating forecasts of 60.9 and pointing to continuing strong growth in factory activity. Looking into the commentary, new orders and the backlog of orders accelerated and rising price pressures remained acute. It would seem US companies continue to struggle to respond to the rising demand due to the difficulty in hiring and retaining workers. The US numbers are in stark contrast to recent Chinese manufacturing PMI numbers, the NBS May actual at 51 (previous 51.1 forecast 51.2) and the privately sourced Caixin actual 52 (previous 51.9 forecast 51.7) were both in line with their modest expectations and passed by without significant comment. But perhaps the news is not the data but in the comparison between the two. China which has been working to suppress expectations of commodity price inflation, and is restraining its monetary policy may find itself unwittingly within a stagflationary conundrum. Unable to suppress rising global commodity prices causing inflation at home, at the same time the domestic economy is moving sideways. Beijing policymakers are particularly sensitive to inflation which is seen as a prime source of social disharmony.Overseas Intermediary access took another step forward at the weekend as the CSRC approved trading of crude oil options on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE), and palm oil options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), Both products will be open to overseas investors, with palm oil options set to begin trading on June 18 and crude oil options to follow on June 21. The next contract expected to launch will probably be a new freight futures contract from the INE, however, we are yet to be informed of the construction of its underlying index.Elsewhere, speakers at the second Qujiang Forum in Xian, organised by the China Finance 40 Forum think tank, urged Beijing policymakers to reconsider their relations with their counterparts in the West. “Now is not the time when [China] needs to compete with the West in the field of ideology,” said Li Ruogu, a former chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China. “Our main issue is still the development [of the economy and society], without which there will be so many problems we cannot resolve.” A theme reiterated by Xu Qiyuan, are search fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Science “in politics, we should not only avoid being isolated but also need to unite more countries to stand together.”Unsurprisingly, in a country where nothing happens without a reason, these remarks found an echo from President Xi himself. In reports published by Xinhua yesterday, at a recent study session of the Politburo, XI listed a series of goals including building a team of professionals who can meet the countrys international communication needs, and find new ways to connect with multiple audiences. “It is necessary to make friends, unite and win over the majority, and constantly expand the circle of friends [when it comes to] international public opinion.” While this may be an effort to regain the narrative around Covid, it may also be used to critique current US economic policy which if proved inflationary is a major hurdle to Chinese stability. Put simply, China needs to regain some influence on the formation of US economic policy, that is not just more diplomacy, but the suggestion of what is good for the US is not necessarily good for every country. The converse of which is that the RMB strengthens in terms of becoming a reserve currency, which is a proposition that the US certainly cannot afford. Have a good day
Joh