Tech Stocks Rebound Sharply as AI Capex Concerns Ease

On May 13, the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Industry and Security officially rescinded the Biden-era Intelligence Diffusion Rule, which aimed to prevent high-end chips from reaching countries like China, Iran, and Russia. Instead, the administration announced a shift to broader global semiconductor export controls. The original rule had been criticized by major tech firms as stifling U.S. innovation and hindering expansion into emerging neutral markets, potentially accelerating Chinas own AI development efforts.

The timing of the policy reversal notably coincided with a high-profile investment forum in Saudi Arabia, attended by former President Donald Trump and top U.S. tech CEOs. The event also marked the announcement of one of the largest Middle Eastern investment pledges to date—over $600 billion in U.S. investments, spanning AI, data centers, and defense sectors.

Among the major deals, Nvidia (NVDA) will sell its AI chips to Saudi-based startup Humain, with an initial batch of 18,000 GB300 chips to be deployed in the next-generation Grace Blackwell supercomputers. The estimated total value of this deal is around $7 billion. AMD (AMD) and Qualcomm (QCOM) also struck partnerships, with AMD securing a $10 billion supply contract. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) signed a $20 billion server deal with Saudi firm DataVolt.

(Figure 1: S&P 500 Heat Map – Source: FINVIZ)

The U.S.'s strategic shift to promote AI expansion in the Middle East has helped ease market concerns over a potential slowdown in AI-related capital expenditures, injecting new momentum into the broader AI supply chain. Driven by strong tech gains, three of the four major U.S. indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq logging its sixth straight daily gain. Nvidia and AMD each rose over 4%.

In our view, lifting the diffusion rule helps redirect chip exports away from China, effectively filling the supply gap. At the same time, the U.S. has reinforced its stance by banning global use of Huawei chips and restricting American AI chips from being utilized in Chinese AI models. We expect further policies aimed at maintaining the broader strategic containment of China's tech ambitions.

As risk assets rally and geopolitical trade tensions ease, gold continues to face selling pressure. Prices have broken below the key $3,200/oz support level. Although the U.S. remains in a broader rate-cutting environment, gold may stay rangebound or trend lower in the short term. Caution is warranted, especially for left-side traders attempting to bottom-fish.

Gold Technical Outlook

Based on the 1-hour chart, gold is expected to consolidate between $3,167 and $3,230. A break below $3,167 could signal a light short opportunity, while a break above $3,201 could open the door for light long positions. Bulls are advised to take profits if resistance at $3,230 holds. Suggested stop-loss range: $5–$10 per ounce.

• Support levels: $3,150, $3,167

• Resistance level: $3,230

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