Mohicans markets：11.17-MHM European Perspective

Market inventory

On Thursday, November 17, Beijing time, during the Asian European session, spot gold was volatile and weak, falling by 0.9% at one time, hitting a new low of 1761.35 US dollars/ounce in three trading days. On the one hand, the market's concern about the possible escalation of the geopolitical situation cooled. On the other hand, the overnight US retail sales data was stronger than expected, indicating that inflation will take longer to ease. Several officials of the Federal Reserve made hawkish speeches to help the US dollar rebound. In addition, the gold price failed to break the resistance around 1786.36 for many times, which also triggered some long profit taking.

However, some institutions believe that the US dollar has peaked. The yield of the US 10-year treasury bond fell to a new low since October 5 on Wednesday. The market still generally believes that the Federal Reserve and most central banks around the world will gradually slow down the pace of interest rate increases. The expectation of global economic recession persists, and gold prices are still supported in the medium and long term. The short-term callback space of gold prices is still limited. It is still too early to say that it will peak.

US crude oil fell more than 1% to US $84.29/barrel; US oil fell more than 1.5% on Wednesday after Russia's oil transport to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline restarted. Oil prices continued to decline on Thursday as concerns about geopolitical tensions eased, while the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, a major Asian country, raised concerns about the demand of the world's largest crude oil importer; In the short term, the oil price faces the risk of further decline.

This trading day focused on the changes in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time, the data on Housing Starts and Building Permits in October in the United States, and the speech of the Federal Reserve officials, the British budget statement and the related news on the geographical situation.

Mohicans Markets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on November 17, 2022 Beijing time.

Technical analysis

Change of CME Group's option layout (futures price in December):

1800 Bullish sharply reduced, bearish slightly increased, resistance level

1790 Bullish increased, bearish increased, resistance level

1780-1785 Bullish increased, bearish increased significantly, and the resistance area was relatively strong

1755-1760 Bullish decreased, bearish sharply increased, short target area

1750 Bullish sharply reduced, bearish sharply increased, short target

1745 Bullish unchanged, bearish sharply increased, short target

1725 Bullish slightly increased, bearish significantly increased, short target

Order flow key point marking (spot price):

1800-1803 Resistance zone, long target, near 200 day moving average, call option bet

1785 Short-term key resistance level

1781 Starting point and falling point after data, resistance level

1774  The first resistance level of the day

1763 Early shocking center, support position

1747 Important support, break the position and be alert for further callback risk. Look at the 1735-1722 range

1722 Support position

1712 CPI data rear lifting point, key support

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on November 17. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Change of CME Group's option layout (futures price in December):

22 Bullish sharply reduced, bearish slightly increased, resistance level

21.75 Bullish unchanged, bearish increased, resistance level

21.5 Bullish increased, bearish increased, long short competition, key position

21.25 Bullish slightly increased, bearish slightly increased, short target, support level

21-21.10 Bullish slightly decreased, bearish increased, short target

20.75 Bullish unchanged, bearish increased, short target

Order flow key point marking (spot price):

22.9 Strong resistance level

22.5-22.6 Strong resistance area composed of early rebound highs, and long targets in technical

22.15 Key resistance, it is expected to further rise after breaking

21.78 The first resistance level of the day, and the boundary between long and short targets

21.46 Key technical support level, 200 day moving average

21.3 Important support, CPI data rising point

20.98 Key technical support, top bottom conversion

20.4 Back stepping of non-agricultural data, important support

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on November 17. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

CME Group options layout changes (Futures Price in December)：

90 Bullish increased sharply, bearish increased slightly, long target

87.5 Bullish increased sharply, bearish unchanged, long target

85 Bullish increased sharply, bearish increased sharply, long and short compete for points 

81 Bullish unchanged, bearish decreased sharply, support level

80 Bullish increased sharply, bearish increased sharply, short target, the action can expand under the vigilance of breaking the position

77 Bullish unchanged, bearish increased sharply, short target

Order flow key point marking (Spot Price)：

92.8-93.5 Strong resistance area

89.8-90 Key resistance area

86.8-87 Strong resistance area

86 Resistance level

85.4 First key resistance level during the day, breakout to rejoin the convergence pattern in oscillating trading

84 First support level

83.3 Last defense for the long side, break down to focus on the short target range

80-82 Short target range

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on November 17. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Todays CME Group data:

1.05 Bullish decreased slightly but the stock was large, bearish unchanged, long target and resistance

1.045 Bullish decreased, bearish increased slightly, resistance level

1.04 Bullish decreased slightly but the stock was large, bearish increased slightly, rebound target and resistance

1.035 Bullish decreased slightly, bearish decreased slightly, first support

1.03 Bullish decreased sharply but the stock was large, bearish increased slightly, fallback target and support

1.025 Bullish unchanged, bearish increased sharply, short target

1.02 Bullish decreased sharply but the stock was large, bearish increased and the stock was large, short target and support

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on November 17. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Todays CME Group data:

1.21 Bullish unchanged but the stock was large, bearish unchanged, long target

1.20 Bullish decreased sharply but the stock was large, bearish unchanged, strong resistance

1.195 Bullish unchanged but the stock was large, bearish unchanged, rebound target

1.19 Bullish increased slightly, bearish increased slightly, rebound target and resistance

1.185 Bullish unchanged but the stock was large, bearish unchanged, first support

1.18 Bullish unchanged but the stock was large, bearish increased slightly, fallback target and support

1.175 Bullish decreased slightly but the stock was large, bearish increased slightly, short target and support

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on November 17. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Statement|Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice. 

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