Don’t Overthink It—While Others Are Cutting Losses, We’re Buying the Dip

Last Friday, markets were shaken by a dramatic move in the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index plunged more than 1%, falling below the key 100 level. Simultaneously, the Japanese yen surged, gold soared to new highs, and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields spiked. Taken together, investors interpreted this as a signal that the dollar could be on the verge of collapse.

Under normal circumstances, rising fear would lead investors to seek shelter in U.S. Treasuries. However, last weeks bond market turmoil told a different story. Massive basis trade positions faced margin calls, triggering an aggressive unwind of short Treasury futures. On top of that, fears of stagflation intensified, further eroding confidence in the U.S. credit system.

Adding fuel to the fire is the Trump administrations erratic tariff policy. The lack of consistency has shaken investor faith in both the U.S. economy and dollar-denominated assets. For many, U.S. policy risk now resembles a ticking time bomb, threatening to become the economic equivalent of World War III.

When markets behave in ways we didn‘t anticipate, it’s natural to seek explanations. But that search often begins with confusion, deepens into fear, and ends in reactionary decisions—like panic selling. (To be clear, were not talking about CFD trades here, but actual asset positions.)

Our role, however, is to differentiate between sentiment-driven volatility and genuine fundamental shifts. If its the latter, managing your existing portfolio positions becomes essential.

But what if this is just a sentiment swing？ We know how unpredictable Trumps policies can be—one day bullish, the next day bearish. Could it be that the worst-case scenario everyone fears may never come to pass？

Looking at current market performance: the Nasdaq has fallen as much as 25%, and the S&P 500 is down 20%—both officially in bear market territory.

Technically speaking, any seasoned analyst would‘ve already turned cautious on February 23, when the major indices dropped below their 50-day moving averages. If someone’s only now telling you to short the market, theyre likely behind the curve.

True technical analysis isn‘t about chasing trends—it’s about identifying extremes. When prices deviate significantly from the mean, and market sentiment hits panic mode, thats often the buy signal—not the sell one.

Take gold for example. Its rallied to historic highs in response to equity market weakness, driven by safe-haven demand. But logic tells us that as risk appetite returns, those same gold positions could face heavy liquidation.

Gold Technical Outlook

Gold gapped lower this morning but gradually climbed to fill the previous bearish gap. Key resistance lies at $3,242. A break above that level would support continued bullish momentum, with an upside target of $3,300. Failure to break through resistance could trigger a pullback toward support at $3,172.

• Support: 3,172

• Resistance: 3,242 / 3,300

Risk Disclaimer: The views, analysis, prices, and data provided above are for general market commentary only and do not represent the official stance of this platform. All users should assess their own risk and exercise caution in trading.