Mohicans markets：Gold Pays Attention to Rebound Momentum Expectations of Production Cuts Support Oil Prices

Key Data

Fundamentals Overview

On Monday August 29, the intraday decline of spot gold expanded to 1%, and it is currently approaching the $1720 mark. The first support moved down to 1720.45, and if it is confirmed to fall below, focus on the support of 1704.44. Spot silver is under pressure below the pivot point, and the support is far from the current price, looking at 18.17. The first upward target of WTI crude oil is 94.69. The U.S. dollar index fell after hitting the daily high of 109.50, with two new short-term resistances above, and the first concern was 109.30.The euro bottomed out against the dollar, the decline narrowed, and the first resistance was 0.9956. GBP/USD support at 1.1653.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on August 29, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1758 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase slightly, long target

1750 Bullish increase, bearish, small increase and large stock, strong resistance

1740 Bullish increase, bearish increase, bulls and bears fight for points

1720-1725 Bullish slightly increased, bearish increased, key support

1710 Bullish unchanged, bearish unchanged but large stock, short target

1695-1700 bullish remains unchanged, bearish decreases but the stock is large, the midline bearish target

1675 Bullish slightly increased, bearish increased, bears target

Technical Analysis

At the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting last Friday, Powell was again a strong hawk, reaffirming his determination to fight inflation, the dollar index rose strongly, and gold broke down. However, from the perspective of options changes, bullish sentiment is high, and a large number of call options are betting on gold rising. At present, the price of gold has reached the area dominated by bears, and there is no obvious long stock below to provide support.

The short bets below are intensive, and the short targets are 1708, 1692-1798 and 1673. The put options have relatively intensive signs of entry below the current price, and the downside risk is increasing.

If gold turns to the upside, it needs to hold the 1720-1725 range first. There is a lot of stock in put options here, and it is also the early short target.

The number of newly added longs and shorts at 1738 is equivalent. It is a point of competition between longs and shorts, and it is also a dividing point between longs and shorts. The gold price may only be expected to reverse the decline if it breaks through 1738.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 29. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO · Technical Level · Spot Silver

18.75 Bullish unchanged, bearish increases slightly and the stock is large, long and short are competing for points

18.6 Bullish unchanged, bearish increased sharply, resistance level

18.5 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease slightly but large stock, resistance level

18 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase and large stock, short target

17.75 Bullish slightly decreased, bearish increased, bears target

17.5 Bullish increase, bearish decrease slightly but the stock is large, bearish target

Technical Analysis

After Powell's hawkish statement at the Jackson Hole annual meeting last Friday, silver followed the trend of gold and fell below the mid-line support. The stock of bulls below is less, and it has failed to form an effective support for the trend, and there is still a high downside risk. The bears are betting at 18.15 below, which is the first bearish target. If silver continues to decline, it is expected to see 17.9. The secondary bearish target is at 17.65. There are more bearish bets below, and the action can be expanded under vigilance. There is less long stock around the current price and there is no significant change. If silver rebounds, the first resistance is at 18.65, and the secondary resistance is at 18.75.  The long-short dividing point is near 18.9, and only a smooth breakthrough can ease the current decline.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 29. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

99.5-100 Bullish increase sharply, bearish unchanged, long target

98 Bullish decrease sharply, bearish increase slightly, resistance, upside momentum weakened

96 Bullish increase, slightly less bullish, key resistance

95 Bullish increase, bearish increase, first resistance

93 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease slightly, support level

91-92 Bullish increase, bearish increase greatly, strong support 

88 bullish increase, bearish increase greatly, bearish target

Technical Analysis

Under the threat of OPEC's production cuts, oil prices bottomed out and rebounded on Friday, and option bets as a whole are still in a state of large range fluctuations.

Below the current price, 93 has become an intraday short-term support, while the call options of 91-92 have increased significantly, and there is an obvious mid-line support. The breakout will break through the current fluctuation range, and the short target below is in the 88 range. Under the threat of Saudi production cuts, it is expected to be driven by strong fundamental factors.

Above the current price, funds betting on a rebound will leave the market at 96-98, which is expected to weaken the upward momentum, and it will be more difficult to break through 96 before the US market. In the short-term, 95 and 96 constitute resistance, and it is necessary to break 98 to test the long target of 99.5-100.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 29. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR ·  Technical Level · EURUSD

1.1 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged and the stock is large, long target and resistance

1.00 Bullish increase, bearish decrease slightly but the stock is large, strong resistance

1.005 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, resistance weaken

0.995 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase substantially and the stock is large, resistance

0.99 Bullish decrease slightly, bearish increase and the stock is large, downside target

0.985 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, support

0.98 Bullish decrease slightly, bearish decrease substantially but the stock is large, short target and support

Technical Analysis

Last Friday, as the European Central Bank rumors of a possible 75 basis point interest rate hike, Europe and the United States before the U.S. market once rushed higher. And then Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made hawkish remarks, Europe and the United States and back down to below parity. And then todays opening to continue the decline, and now may test the 0.99 downside target. From the perspective of options change, the parity position long and short division is obvious. Long positions are concentrating on increasing bets above, while short positions are entering frequently below. If the 0.99 downside target is broken, there may be a further test of support at 0.985, as this position represents the first departure after consecutive short entries; and then the short target is aimed at 0.98, where there is not only a stock advantage in bearish options, but also a large number of departures, and thus is expected to provide strong support. On the upside, a large bearish inventory around 0.995 and significant new short bets will be the first resistance. And then resistance around 1.005 has weakened, and if it rises above, it may look to strong resistance at 1.00 and long target 1.01.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 29. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.175-1.177 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase, next resistance

1.17 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, first resistance

1.165 Bullish unchanged, bearish unchanged but the stock is large, downside target and key support

1.16 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply and the stock is large, short target

1.15 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease slightly, support level

Technical Analysis

Affected by the Fed‘s hawkish expectations on Friday, the pound continued to fall after the U.S. session, falling below the previous short target of 1.175. And today’s opening continues to fall, currently hovering around 1.165. Although 1.165 near, Call Options and Put Options are not action. But puts have a large concentration of chips here, which will be the downside target and key support for this round of decline; if it breaks further, it will probably look to the short target of 1.16, where there is not only short money to add positions, but also bearish inventory is also large. It is worth noting that 1.15 is the only position where the shorts are leaving the market, and the short-term downside momentum to this point is limited. On the other hand, 1.17 added a lot of bearish options, which will be the first resistance to rebound; if it broken, or will look to the next resistance 1.175-1.177.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 29. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.695 Bullish decrease slightly, bearish increase and the stock is large, strong rebound resistance

0.69 Bullish decrease slightly, bearish increase and the stock is large, resistance

0.685 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease slightly, previous support turned resistance

0.68 Bullish increase slightly, bearish decrease, key support

0.675 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase slightly, first short target at 

0.67 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease significantly , downside momentum weaken

Technical Analysis

Australia and the U.S. turned down after hitting a snag at 0.7 on Friday and were already testing the key prior support at 0.685. Overall, options bets are little changed and still fluctuate in the 0.675-0.695 range. Intraday, 0.685 below the primary test of 0.68 key support, after the break is expected to test 0.675 this short target. If the recent stabilization of 0.685, Australia and the U.S. will still face 0.69-0.7 this strong resistance range, but stabilization of 0.69 may ease the downside action.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 29. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.