​Mohicans markets：MHM Today’s News

In order to further meet the needs of investors for real-time news of the international market and broaden the channels for investors to understand the market, MHMarkets launches heavily “Todays News” to provide investors with real-time market information.

October 11, 2022--Fundamental Reminder

☆ G7 holds an emergency meeting on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

☆ Feds Mester speaks at 24:00, watching for his hawkish tone to moderate.

☆ The next day 02:35, the Bank of England Governor Bailey gives a speech. The Bank of England‘s latest action overnight fails to appease the market, and the market believes that what is more critical to the UK financial markets are the details of the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s fiscal plan to be announced at the end of the month and the extent of the interest rate hike in November. The Royal Bank of Canada believes that it is advisable to buy the EURGBP because the Bank of England may reduce the expectation of interest rate hikes.

Market Overview

-- Source: jin10 & Bloomberg

On Monday, October 10, the dollar index stood at 113 and closed up 0.381% at 113.16. The Russian ruble fell to 63 against the dollar for the first time since July 7.

U.S. bonds were closed Monday for the U.S. Columbia Day holiday.

Spot gold accelerated its decline, falling from 1699.89 all the way down to a low of 1665.50, and finally closed down 1.69% at $1,668.15 per ounce. The World Gold Council (WGC) noted that gold continued to be under pressure, with further outflows from gold ETFs in September. Spot silver fell more than 3% intraday, and eventually closed down 2.46% at $19.64 per ounce.

Crude oil began to give back some of last week's gains, with WTI crude closing down 1.95% at $91.03 per barrel and Brent crude closing down 2.14% at $96.66 per barrel.

U.S. stocks opened lower for the fourth straight day, with the Dow closing down 0.32%; the Nasdaq closed down 1.04%, having fallen 1.3% during the session to its lowest level since September 2020; the S&P 500 closed down 0.75%. New energy vehicle stocks, popular Chinese stocks and charging pile stocks were the top losers. Good Future fell more than 21%, Beeper fell more than 10% and Rivian dropped more than 7%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 3%, hitting a new low since November 2020.

European stocks continued to fall, Germany‘s DAX30 index closed flat; FTSE 100 index closed down 0.45%; France’s CAC40 index closed down 0.45%; the European Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.55%; Spain‘s IBEX35 index closed down 0.3%; Italy’s FTSE MIB index closed up 0.05%.

Hot Spots in the Market

——Source: jin10&Bloomberg

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a security meeting of the Russian Federation, saying that the Russian Ministry of Defense used land-based, air based and sea based missiles to strike Ukrainian military targets on the same day.

2. The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine said that due to missile attacks, the energy system of Ukraine had suffered the most serious damage since the outbreak of the conflict. Ukraine will stop exporting electricity to the EU from October 11.

3. Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Biden discussed air defense issues.

4. The operator of “Nord Stream - 2” pipeline said that the pressure of the second pipeline had been reduced as a preventive measure.

5. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard: The Federal Reserve has said that it will raise interest rates and interest rates will rise to a restrictive level, but the actual policy path will depend on the data.

6. European Central Bank Governing Committee Robert Noether: Support to continue to raise interest rates until the 2% inflation target is achieved. He predicted that the next two interest rate decision-making meetings would take the step of “significantly raising interest rates”.

7. London Metal Exchange (LME): The margin of LBP will be raised to US $180, which will take effect after the closing on October 12, 2022.

8. According to the Wall Street Journal, Mohammed al Sudani, the number one candidate for Iraqi Prime Minister, said that Iraq could not afford to reduce oil production as part of OPEC+production reduction measures. He made it clear that when he came to power, he would ask OPEC+to reconsider the production reduction agreement.

9. It is reported that German Prime Minister Schultz will change his country's position and support the joint issuance of EU bonds to mitigate the impact of the energy crisis.

10. The Bank of England said it would increase the scale of bond purchases to a maximum of 10 billion pounds in the next five days, up from 5 billion pounds previously.

11. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig won the Nobel Prize in Economics.

12. On October 10 local time, diesel prices in Sweden hit a record high, reaching 28.52 Swedish kronor (about 18.04 yuan) per liter. The last record high was 28.22 Swedish kronor (about 17.85 yuan) per liter on March 9.

13. The American Railway Union refused the temporary labor agreement promoted by Biden, and the risk of strike flared up again.

14. The Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of the US Senate called for the immediate freezing of cooperation between the US and Saudi Arabia, as Saudi Arabia supported the oil production reduction promoted by Russia.

Institutional Perspective

 —— MHMarkets ETA

1. Commerzbank AG: There is no resistance to the strengthening of the US dollar at present

2. National Australia Bank: do not think that the US dollar has peaked

3. Mitsubishi UFJ: The euro may fall to a level close to 0.90 against the dollar before the end of the year

4. Royal Bank of Canada: As the Bank of England may reduce the expectation of interest rate increase, it is recommended to buy EUR against GBP

5. Netherlands International: GBP/USD may easily fall below the support level of 1.1

6. Rabobank: maintain the forecast that the euro will fall to 0.95 against the dollar within one month, and do not rule out the possibility of falling below this level

7. Standard Chartered Bank: The slowdown of the US economy will support the Canadian dollar

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