​Stay Cautious Trading Despite Strong CNY & Steady USD

WikiFX News (27 Aug) -The exchange rate of onshore and offshore RMB against US dollar (CNY and CNH) both headed higher to over 6.90 in yesterdays trading. As of press time, CNY and CNH record 6.8897 and 6.8851, respectively.

According to Zhang Wei, chief macro researcher of the Asset Management Centre under Kunlun Health Insurance, the strong performance of the Chinese Yuan is closely related to two factors.

“China's economy has embraced a robust recovery with the positive fiscal policy taking effect in particular. The countrys GDP is expected to grow more than 6% in each of the next two quarters.” Zhang added, on the other hand, overseas investors are expected to buy more Chinese bonds due to the the positive yield spread between Chinese bonds and bonds in foreign countries, which pushes the RMB exchange rate higher.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar index has get out of the shadow over it for nearly 3 months with firmer footing established, and is poised for a rally now. As of press time, the dollar index keeps constructive above the 93 barrier at the level of 93.12.

“From the perspective of economic data, the recurrent outbreaks of the pandemic has hamper the earlier rebound in European economy”, said Li Liuyang, chief forex analyst of the Financial Department for China Merchants Bank. He also believed that the greenback is preparing to rebound from the bottom by more than 20% under such situation.

Ming Ming, deputy director of the research institute with CITIC Securities, stated that the US dollar is still supported by the increasing risk aversion and the slowly recovered fundamentals of the U.S. economy.

According to the research report of Nanhua Futures, the risk aversion in the market is likely to occur repeatedly because of uncertain factors. Investors should better not make large transactions in the near future no matter in forex settlement or sales.

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Chart: the candlestick of USD/CNY