EUR/USD Testing Support Ahead of the Latest US Jobs Report (NFP)

• EUR/USD – boxed in and eyeing multi-week support.

• Retail traders add to long positions, reduce shorts.

With central bank meetings out of the way, all eyes will now be on the monthly US Jobs Report (NFP) for the latest look at employment levels in the US. While this week‘s Fed meeting was seen as the main driver of price action this week, the NFP report may give the market a final boost of volatility ahead of the weekend. Last month’s headline figure missed by a wide margin – 190k against 500k expectations – while this month 450k new jobs are expected to have been added. Headline figures are important and keep an eye on any revisions to last months big miss.

The daily EUR/USD chart shows how the pair have been boxed in over the last 5-6 weeks with both support and resistance holding. The chart has a neutral to bearish bias with the pair back below all three simple moving averages, while the CCI indicator shows the pair to be currently oversold. The recent low around 1.1525 is likely to be tested again, especially if NFP comes in better-than-expected which would leave 1.1446, the 50% Fib retracement of the January 2017-February 2018 rally – as the next point of interest. Resistance remains around 1.1615.

EURO (EUR/USD) DAILY PRICE CHART NOVEMBER 5, 2021

Retail trader data show 61.94% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.63 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 14.18% higher than yesterday and 17.17% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.30% lower than yesterday and 21.83% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall.

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Source: DailyFX