Abstract:Gold on the front foot this week- consolidates ahead of ECB meeting, US inflation data
Gold was still trading below last weeks highs with prices dropping on Friday after data showed the U.S. employed hired more workers than expected in May and maintained a fairly strong pace of wage increases.
Coming after the recent U.S. job report, market buyers remain cautious amid escalating fears of the FED's faster rate hike at June and July policy meetings, and Fridays jobs report raised that possibility even more.
Also, another tab to keep in mind is the anxiety-inducing European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting this week and the upcoming U.S. CPI data this Friday. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which yields no interest. Also, risk-positive headlines from China keep the precious metal on the front foot for the upcoming week.
On the technical side, despite the recent positive MA and RSI signals, Gold remains on the seller‘s radar as the medal portrays a three-week-old rising bearish chart pattern. First, one of the things keeping the XAUUSD sellers hopeful is the metal trader’s inability to cross the convergence of the 50-p MA at $1860, as well as the stated wedges resistance line, around $1,873 by the press time.
It should be noted, however, that the metal sellers need validation from $1,840 to retake control. Following that, a southward trajectory towards $1830, and after the yearly low near $1,788, cant be ruled out.
On the other hand, if the positive trend continues, a successful break of the $1,873 hurdle should successfully cross Marchs low of $1,890, as well as the $1,900 threshold to please the bullion buyers.
JPY strengthened against the USD, pushing USD/JPY near 145.00, driven by strong inflation data and BoJ rate hike expectations. Japan's strong Q2 GDP growth added support. However, USD gains may be limited by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
Gold prices remain above $2,500, near record highs, as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee minutes for confirmation of a potential Fed rate cut in September. The Fed's dovish shift, prioritizing employment over inflation, has weakened the US Dollar, boosting gold. A recent revision showing the US created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported also strengthens the case for a rate cut.
USD/JPY holds near 145.50, recovering from 144.95 lows. The Yen strengthens on strong GDP, boosting rate hike expectations for the Bank of Japan. However, gains may be limited by potential US Fed rate cuts in September.
Spot gold continued its record-breaking rally as investors gained confidence that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September and gold ETF purchases improved. The U.S. market hit a record high of $2,531.6 per ounce