​Mohicans markets：Follow the Developments of the European Central Bank

At 21:00, European Central Bank President Lagarde made an introductory speech at the hearing of the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. It is necessary to pay attention to whether she will talk about the follow-up policy path of the European Central Bank.

At 22:00, the 2022 FOMC vote committee and Boston Fed President Collins will deliver a speech on the U.S. economy. Investors can pay attention to his views on the Feds subsequent rate hike path and August CPI data.

From 8:00 on September 23, Moscow time (13:00 on the 23rd, Beijing time), Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions began to hold referendums on joining the Russian Federation, and the referendum will run from September 23 to 27.

Closed reminder: The Philippine stock market and foreign exchange market are closed for one day today.

Global View - Mainstream Market

On September 23, Friday, Beijing time, spot gold fell sharply after rising to a high of $1,675.8 in the Asian session, and once broke the $1,640 mark, a new low since April 2020, and it finally closed down 1.62% at $1,643.94 per ounce; Spot silver fell below the $19 mark and finally closed down 3.88% at $18.87 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar index sang all the way, broke through the 113 mark, continued to hit a new high in 20 years, and finally closed up 1.6% at 113.02; the 10-year U.S. bond yield once reached a high of 3.819% within a day, and then gave back some of the gains, and finally closed at 3.687 %.

On the oil front, oil prices posted their longest losing streak this year and their first quarterly decline in more than two years, amid concerns over economic growth.

WTI crude oil fell more than 5% within the day and fell below the $80 mark, and finally closed down 5.18% at $79.73 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell below the $90 mark and once fell to a low of $85.48 a barrel, before closing down 3.93% at $86.71 a barrel.

U.S. stocks continued to plummet. The Dow closed down 1.62%, the S&P 500 closed down 1.72%, the Nasdaq closed down 1.8%, star technology stocks fell, Tesla fell 4.6%, and Netflix fell 4.5%. European stocks fell sharply across the board, and the German DAX index closed down 1.97% at 12,284.19 points; The FTSE 100 index closed down 1.97% at 7018.6 points; The Stoxx Europe 50 closed down 2.29% at 3,348.6 points.

Precious metals and energy market related information

precious metal

On September 26, Monday, Beijing time, we will focus on this trading day:

21:00 European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivers a speech, 22:00 Fed vote committee, Boston Fed President Collins delivers a speech on the US economy.

Last Friday, the US dollar strengthened sharply, standing at the 113 mark, setting a record since May 2002. Of course, this is inseparable from the recent rise in US bond yields. As the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes have kept expected inflation under control, the current US real interest rates also continue to rise.

Under the pressure of the US dollar and interest rates, the price of gold fell sharply on Friday and has now fallen below the $1,650 mark. Considering that the current hawkish expectations have not peaked, the selling pressure of gold prices is still relatively large.

Crude Oil

On Monday, September 26, Beijing time, please notice：

During the day, please focus on 2022 FOMC member, Boston Fed President Collins will speak on the U.S. economy.

Bullish factors affecting oil prices

【Russia says Ukraine continues to provoke near Zaporozhye nuclear power plant】

【Gazprom has not yet resumed supply, German Prime Minister visits to seek energy】

【U.S. warns Russia of “catastrophic consequences”if it uses nuclear weapons】

Bearish factors affecting oil prices

【The Chairman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran will hold talks with the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency】

【The three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply this week】

【U.S. business activity shrank for third straight month in September】

【The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November is 76.2%】

Currency Market Related Information

Currency Market

On Monday, September 26, Beijing time, during the day please focus on: 

ECB Vice President Guindos will speak, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak, and Boston Fed President Collins will speak on the U.S. economy.

According to CMEs “Federal Reserve Watch”: The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points to the range of 3.50%-3.75% in November is 23.8%, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 76.2%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 0%; The probability of a cumulative 100 basis point rate hike by December is 26.6%, the probability of a cumulative 125 basis point rate hike is 69.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 150 basis point rate hike is 0%. The euro and sterling tumbled to fresh 20- and 37-year lows against the dollar on Friday after surveys showed that business activity across the Eurozone and Britain was slumping faster and the economy could enter a recession.

Institutional Market View point

1. Societe Generale is not optimistic about the UK fiscal plan, thinking that it will push the pound lower in the short term

2. Capital Economics: The dollar is strengthening across the board, and the rally may stop soon

3. Bank of Montreal: Canadas economy is expected to fall into recession in the first half of next year, and the Canadian dollar may fall further

4. Citi is bearish on GBPUSD and is expected to trade in the 1.05-1.10 range

5. TD Securities: Weak balance of payments will put downward pressure on sterling

6. Deutsche Bank foreign exchange experts: call on the Bank of England to raise interest rates urgently

7. Saxo Bank experts: If gold prices rebound, it will not be sustainable

8. OANDA analyst: Gold prices may fall towards 1600

9. ING: Russias energy influence is further weakened

10. Standard Chartered: Natural gas prices may continue to fall

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

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