MHMarkets：November 14, 2023--Fundamental Reminder

10:00 Us Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen holds a press conference

15:00 GBP Unemployment Rate (OCT) & GBP Claimant Count Change (OCT)

16:00 Fed Williams speaks.

17:00 IEA releases monthly crude oil market report.

18:00 EUR GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est (Q3) & EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (NOV) & EUR Employment Change QoQ s.a (Q3)

18:30 Fed vice chairman Jefferson speaks.

21:30 USD Inflation Rate YoY n.s.a (OCT) & USD Inflation Rate MoM s.a (OCT) & USD Core Inflation Rate YoY n.s.a (OCT) & USD Core Inflation Rate MoM (OCT)

21:30 Fed Barkin speaks.

The next day at 01:45, Fed Goolsbee speaks.

The next day at 06:00, MSCI releases its November index review report.

MHMarkets Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Monday, the dollar index pushed the 106 mark before turning lower, ending down 0.132% at 105.68. U.S. Treasury yields retreated, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.64%; The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, closed at 5.033%.

Spot gold fell first and then rose, with the U.S. market continuing to pull higher, once approaching the $1,950 mark, before closing up 0.3% at $1,946.26 an ounce. Spot silver fell below the 22 mark before recovering, wiping out almost all of the day's losses to end at $22.31 an ounce.

Oil prices rose to their highest since Nov. 7 as Opec's monthly report eased concerns about demand, while a U.S. probe into shipping companies suspected of violating sanctions on Rosneft raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. WTI crude closed up 1.51% at $78.47 per barrel; Brent crude settled up 1.25% at $82.63 a barrel.

The three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.1%, the Nasdaq fell 0.22% and the S&P 500 fell 0.08%. Boeing (BA.N) and Tesla (TSLA.O) both rose in the 4% line, while Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 0.5% and has risen for nine consecutive sessions. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.83%, with SOHU (SOHU.O) surging 15.9% and LI Auto (LI.O) up nearly 7%. Amusement park operator Jinsheng Amusement fell 27% after Hindenburg issued a short report.

Major European stock indexes collectively closed higher. Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.83%, Germany's DAX30 up 0.73%, Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.89%, France's CAC40 up 0.6%, Spain's IBEX35 up 0.96% and Italy's FTSE MIB up 1.48%.

Market Focus

1. The New York Fed's survey showed inflation expectations one year from now fell to 3.6% from 3.7% in September, those three years from now at 3%, unchanged from September, and those five years from now falling to 2.7% from 2.8% in September.

2. Opec Monthly Report: Global oil market fundamentals Remain strong. Global oil demand growth forecast for 2023 was slightly raised to 2.46 million BPD (previously 2.44 million BPD).

3. EIA : Oil production in the major U.S. shale play is expected to decline slightly for the second month in a row in December, to 9.652 MB/d from 9.653 MB/d in November.

4. The U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control sent a notice to 30 ship management companies on Friday seeking information on more than 100 vessels suspected of carrying Russian crude oil at prices above price caps, according to sources cited by Reuters.

5. The Russian parliament is likely to announce on December 13 that the 2024 presidential election could be held on March 17, 2024, RIA news agency quoted sources as saying.

6. Former British Prime Minister David Cameron was named foreign secretary and made a British baron for life.

7, the yen once forced 152 to a one-year low, the US intraday short-term surge of 70 points, the market speculation that the Japanese authorities entered the intervention. Japan's Finance minister Jun Suzuki said earlier in the day that he could not comment on the level of foreign exchange. “Sudden foreign exchange fluctuations are not desirable and foreign exchange rates should be determined by fundamentals.”

8. Blackrock reduced its holdings of Apple (AAP.O) by 8.23 million shares in the third quarter, Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) by more than 2 million shares each, and Google (GOOG.O) by nearly 8 million shares, according to its 13F filing.

9. A heat wave sweeps through Brazil, with temperatures hitting record highs in several states. According to real-time data from Brazil's National Meteorological Institute on the 13th, 14 Brazilian states and federal districts are currently under a state of alert.

10. Israeli-palestinian conflict - Israeli Defense Minister: Hamas has lost control of Gaza; Hamas's armed wing: ready to release 70 detainees in exchange for a five-day ceasefire; Us bases in the Middle East have been attacked four times in 24 hours.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

【Goldman Sachs boldly predicts : US stocks may rise 8% next year. Artificial intelligence will continue to lead the way】

On Monday, Goldman Sachs published its 2024 market outlook, saying it was broadly positive about the market and economic outlook for the year ahead. After two years of choppiness, the U.S. stock market is likely to avoid a bear market next year and the economy will avoid a recession in the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs analysts predicted in their report that the S&P 500 could hit 4,700 next year, which would imply about 8% upside from Friday's closing price. Since 2022, the U.S. stock market has been in choppy territory, defined as a broadly flat market despite wild swings, according to Goldman strategists.

02

UBS

【UBS strategists boldly predicts : Fed will cut rates by 275 basis points next year, starting as soon as March】

Arend Kapteyn and Bhanu Baweja, strategic analysts at UBS, call out a bold 275 basis point rate cut next year in their latest report, which is nearly four times the prevailing market pricing. Analysts at UBS also said that continued inflation weakness would allow the Fed to cut rates as soon as March, similar to a typical easing cycle in the past.

03

ANZ Bank

【ANZ Bank：Central bank gold purchases remain strong and renewed political tensions will protect the downside】

Anz economists analyze the outlook for gold. Central bank gold purchases remain strong and renewed political tensions will protect the downside, they said. On top of that, with the US monetary tightening cycle over and the dollar about to peak, “we expect central bank gold purchases to remain strong. Based on the current purchasing pace, we raise our demand forecast from 750 tonnes in 2023 and 800 tonnes in 2024 to 1,050 tonnes.”