Gold Soars to Record High as Trade War Fears Grow

• Gold hit a record high as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating trade war concerns.

• The US Dollar remained steady but leaned bearish as fears of reciprocal tariffs weighed on sentiment.

• US Equities extended losses as markets braced for Trump's April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs.

Market Summary

Gold surged to a record high as investors sought safety amid escalating trade war tensions. Trump's latest remarks about expanding tariffs to all countries fueled market uncertainty, prompting a flight to safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the US dollar remained under pressure as traders weighed the potential economic fallout from retaliatory tariffs, with inflationary risks adding to concerns over its stability.

US equity markets extended their losses as trade war fears deepened, with investors bracing for further tariff announcements on April 2. Analysts warned that rising inflationary pressures could force the Federal Reserve into a difficult policy stance, while Goldman Sachs estimated a 35% chance of a US recession within the next year. The British pound also weakened as the UK considered potential retaliatory measures, heightening uncertainty over global trade relations.

Oil prices soared on supply disruption fears after Trump threatened secondary tariffs on Russian crude buyers and warned of potential military action against Iran. Rising geopolitical risks further fueled concerns over energy market stability, pushing crude prices higher.

With global markets on edge, investors are closely monitoring economic data and potential countermeasures from key trading partners.

Current rate hike bets on 7th May Fed interest rate decision:

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (81.5%) VS -25 bps (18.5%)

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The US dollar held steady, though risks tilted toward the downside following Trump‘s tariff threats. Investors remained cautious as the prospect of tit-for-tat trade measures loomed. A full-scale trade war could slow global trade and dampen US growth prospects. Additionally, concerns over inflationary pressures from tariffs put the Federal Reserve’s policy path in focus. Traders are now watching economic data releases and potential retaliatory actions from key US trading partners.

The Dollar Index is trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 42, suggesting the index might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline.

Resistance level: 104.55, 105.90

Support level: 103.25, 101.85

XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices surged to an all-time high as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid heightened market uncertainty. Trump‘s comments about tariffs impacting all countries fueled fears of a global trade war, boosting gold’s appeal. Meanwhile, the US dollar remained steady but faced bearish pressure, as traders worried about retaliatory tariffs from major economies, which could weigh on US economic growth.

Gold prices are trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum. However, RSI is at 71, suggesting the commodity might enter overbought territory.

Resistance level: 3175.00, 3200.00

Support level: 3115.00, 3085.00

GBP/USD，H4

The British pound weakened as investors feared economic fallout from Trump‘s upcoming tariff announcement. The UK government has stated that it will not hesitate to retaliate against US tariffs, raising concerns over potential trade tensions between the two allies. Downing Street’s statement followed Trumps threats of wider tariffs on April 2, but the exact form of UK retaliation remains unclear. Possible responses could include duties on key US sectors or targeted tariffs on products like Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

GBP/USD is trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 49, suggesting the pair might experience technical correction since the RSI rebounded from oversold territory.

Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3010

Support level: 1.2875, 1.2810

Crude Oil, H4:

Oil prices surged sharply amid escalating supply concerns after US President Donald Trump threatened 25%-50% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, citing frustration with President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war. Additionally, Trump warned of bombing and secondary sanctions on Iran if Tehran fails to reach a nuclear agreement with Washington, further fueling fears of tightened global oil supply. These geopolitical tensions have intensified market volatility, driving crude prices higher.

Oil prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 62, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains since the R5I stays above the midline.

Resistance level: 71.75, 75.60

Support level: 66.80, 63.55