Today’s Economic Outlook

Reminder

There will be no precious metals report on Friday, April 18 due to the Good Friday holiday, as most markets will be closed.

COT Reports Analysis

AUD - WEAK (3/5)

GBP - WEAK (5/5)

CAD - WEAK (4/5)

EUR - STRONG (5/5)

JPY - STRONG (5/5)

CHF - WEAK (3/5)

USD - STRONG (4/5)

NZD - WEAK (4/5)

GOLD - STRONG (4/5)

SILVER - STRONG (4/5)

Market Overview

As attention shifts toward the upcoming trade tariffs under Trump, several nations—beyond just India—are taking steps to secure safer trade deals through proactive negotiations.

In a surprising move, U.S. President Donald Trump joined trade talks in Washington on Wednesday with a Japanese delegation, later stating that “”big progress“” had been made alongside lead negotiator Ryosei Akazawa. On Thursday, Trump appeared alongside Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, expressing mutual optimism on resolving trade tensions that have strained U.S.-European relations.

While this has injected some optimism into the market—with hopes that tariffs could be reduced or eliminated depending on how negotiations unfold—analysts remain cautious. Until there‘s a clear shift in Trump’s tone or official policy changes, this optimism remains speculative.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank took a step to support its economy by cutting rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected. The ECB cited that current uncertainty is dampening confidence among consumers and businesses alike, with volatile market reactions tightening monetary conditions indirectly.

But the unease isn‘t just overseas—it’s deeply felt within the U.S. economy too.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve will wait for more data before adjusting interest rates. However, he warned that Trumps tariff policies risk pushing both inflation and employment further from the Fed's targets.

“As the dust is starting to settle, there are concerns regarding that stagflationary outlook that Powell warned about,” said Fiona Cincotta, strategist at City Index.

This underscores that the latest data doesn't yet reflect the forward-looking indicators the Fed needs. Instead, what we are seeing are the ripple effects of tariff strategies and broader trade policies that may compromise long-term economic momentum.

While Powells caution is meant to curb hyper-inflationary risks, it also reinforces investor concerns about a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy—especially troubling given that 2024 was supposed to bring more rate cuts in response to cooling activity.

Trump, for his part, didn‘t take kindly to Powell’s stance. He went so far as to say Powells termination “cannot come fast enough”, while renewing calls for aggressive rate cuts—adding yet another layer of uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy.

According to Christopher Hodge, chief economist for Natixis U.S.:

“I still think Powell will be retained until his term ends, but I‘m less certain than before. Markets would react poorly if the Fed’s independence was compromised. The bottom line is that the parameters of potential policy outcomes have widened.”

MARKET ANALYSIS

GBPUSD

The British Pound continues to perform in line with our expectations for a bullish continuation. Momentum remains strong, with the MACD showing steady growth, while the RSI stays comfortably below overbought territory, even as price continues to rise. We maintain our bullish bias moving into the coming days, with further upside likely.

AUDUSD

The Australian Dollar remains in a consolidation range. While the MACD and RSI are both starting to improve, indicating early bullish momentum, we are yet to see a clear breakout or structural shift. Until that happens, we remain neutral and cautious within this consolidation.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi attempted a push higher but retracted quickly from resistance at 0.59796. The MACD reflects increased volume, and the RSI is nearing oversold territory, supporting our expectation for a bullish continuation. However, with low trading volume anticipated today, we expect sideways price action or a potential pullback to the EMA200. We remain watchful and cautious as the session develops.

EURUSD

There are no changes in our current outlook for the Euro. We continue to observe a consolidation pattern, with no clear momentum shift at this stage.

USDJPY

Similarly, we maintain our view for a consolidation continuation in the Yen. No new signals are emerging from this market at present.

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc also remains within a consolidation phase. There are no adjustments to our current analysis.

USDCAD

The Canadian Dollar is currently showing limited price movement, but there are early signs of selling pressure building. We are awaiting a clear break in price structure to confirm directional bias.