Quick Hits from Today's Markets

Market Analysis

GOLD

GOLD prices continue to rise, gapping higher at the market open as severe geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated dramatically over the weekend. Reports from major news outlets like the Associated Press and Reuters confirmed several days of intense, direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran. These reports detailed Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear-related sites and retaliatory Iranian missile barrages targeting Israeli cities, including Haifa and Tel Aviv, resulting in casualties and significant damage. The MACD and the RSI are also finding increased bullish volume continuation in this risk-off environment. We expect further buying to come in the coming days and will look for more buying opportunities.

SILVER

SILVER prices remain stagnant, likely as market participants flock to the primary safe-haven appeal of GOLD amidst the acute conflict. We are seeing a strong continuation higher for GOLD, with participants anticipating more bullish momentum as the situation develops. This dynamic should eventually translate to better SILVER prices, but until we see a clear break from its current range, we view it as consolidating.

DXY

The Dollar edged higher on safe-haven demand as the conflict in the Middle East dominates market sentiment. Currently, risk-off assets are in focus as players wait to see how the intense conflict will evolve. With stakes at an all-time high, there is a large chance for the conflict to escalate even further. The situation is extremely tense, with reports indicating that Iran has issued warnings that U.S. troops in the region could be targeted, adding another layer of severe risk.

However, despite this immediate safe-haven bid, the Dollar's broader technical picture is more nuanced. The MACD is about to shift lower after failing its bullish check for volume—prices briefly pushed higher before retracting. The RSI is also showing signs that the bullish move was a corrective retracement within a larger bearish trend. We now find more reason to believe that prices will eventually continue bearishly. This longer-term view exists despite the conflict. Why？ Because the situation shrouds doubt on the U.S.'s ability to contain international problems. The insecurity in a region with a heavy U.S. presence leads some to question the integrity behind the U.S.‘s capacity to maintain the current global system and President Trump’s strategies. Although, in the immediate term, we will see appreciation in the price, which might potentially reach for the EMA200, we will wait for a break on either side before calling a clearer directional bias.

GBPUSD

The Pound stays within its consolidation zone. We will wait for a clear break of structure. Until then, we will refrain from taking any action.

AUDUSD

The Australian Dollar broke below its range but has yet to shift the overall price action. It is still regarded as being very much within a larger consolidation area. This relative weakness in the Aussie, a risk-sensitive currency, is pronounced as geopolitical risks in the Middle East curb investor appetite. We know that there is a high probability for prices to continue consolidating and will wait for a break of structure.

NZDUSD

Similar to the Australian Dollar, the Kiwi is still consolidated. We will wait for a breakout from the consolidation.

EURUSD

The Euro is maintaining its bullish structure but lacked the volume to break above 1.16110. The MACD and the RSI are also finding increased chances for a bullish continuation. Thus, all we can do is wait and anticipate buying opportunities. However, depending on how the geopolitical situation unfolds and its potential spillover effects, Europe could be impacted. We will keep a close eye on that.

USDJPY

The Japanese Yen is losing ground against the Dollar again, as both currencies are attracting safe-haven flows, but the Dollar's liquidity is currently giving it an edge. The pair [USD/JPY] continues to trade within its larger consolidation range. We will wait to see how prices progress in the coming days before calling a specific bias.

USDCHF

The Franc is losing some ground to the Dollar's immediate safe-haven bid but maintains strength under its key resistance barrier. In the broader context, the Franc is widely expected to strengthen [USD/CHF to fall] due to its own stability. Thus, the Franc is stronger compared to risk-on assets. The MACD and the RSI are also showing continued selling momentum and volume [for USD/CHF]. Thus, we will look for more bearish opportunities in this market.

USDCAD

The CAD shows gains against the Dollar [USD/CAD is falling]. The MACD and the RSI are also showing increased bearish momentum and volume for the pair. Thus, we will look for more bearish opportunities.

COT Report Analysis

AUD - WEAK (5/5)

GBP - STRONG (5/5)

CAD - WEAK (3/5)

EUR - STRONG (5/5)

JPY - STRONG (2/5)

CHF - WEAK (3/5)

USD - MIXED

NZD - WEAK (3/5)

GOLD - STRONG (4/5)

SILVER - STRONG (5/5)