DBG Markets: Market Report for Jun 30, 2025

Market Analysis

GOLD

GOLD prices dropped significantly before the market closed last week. This was a direct reaction to the U.S. Core PCE Price Index ticking higher than expected on Friday (+0.2% vs. +0.1% forecast), which gives the Federal Reserve less reason to rush into rate cuts. The drop followed through on the overall market's bearish technical expectations after the initial shift. Both the MACD and the RSI are now indicating increased bearish momentum and volume.

We must also note that the current markets are pricing in factors from the Middle East. With the fragile talks between the U.S., Iran, and Israel over a ceasefire ongoing, the appeal of safe-haven assets could quickly change depending on the outcome. However, the drop in GOLD prices may also be a move to manipulate market sentiment or for larger traders to drive the price to a better value before a potential reversal.

SILVER

SILVER prices remain consolidated. This provides evidence that the current markets are trying to determine where the economy is heading. SILVER prices being stable while GOLD is falling might offer a different point of view, mainly that prices for GOLD were viewed as overpriced, prompting a sell-off to bring it to a more attractive level. In this market, the MACD is seeing growth in bearish volume; however, the RSI is still consolidated. Thus, we will hold off on calling for a specific direction until we see a definitive market move.

DXY

The Dollar consolidated after its sharp rally on Friday, which was fueled by the rise in the core inflation reading. This week will be crucial, with a lot of U.S. data set to be released in a holiday-shortened schedule. Key events include Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing PMI and the main event, Thursday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. This data will help us navigate the markets in the coming months. Technically, prices are finding increased chances for a sell continuation, with the MACD and the RSI showing rising volume and momentum to sell further. Thus, we will look for more selling opportunities with the Dollar.

GBPUSD

The Pound has been consolidating near its highs, failing to move in a specific market direction. Although the MACD is reporting an increase in bearish volume, the market's muted reaction to this signal suggests underlying strength and the possibility of renewed bullish momentum. The RSI is also consolidating at the moment, after recently tapping oversold levels. This combination indicates a high probability for a bullish continuation in the coming days. The overall price action is still very bullish, and therefore, we will continue to look for more buying opportunities.

AUDUSD

The Australian Dollar is currently finding increased bullish movement, with the MACD and the RSI reflecting the rise in momentum and volume for buying. This is further proven by how prices are muted on the downside despite the larger drop in the MACD. The EMA200 is also acting as support. Overall, we are looking to buy further and are waiting for a break above 0.65618.

NZDUSD

Similar to the Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi is finding increased buying momentum. The MACD is indicating increased buying volume, but the RSI is still very consolidated. While the bullish structures are still holding and the EMA200 is acting as strong support, the 0.60847 level must be broken through for a buy continuation.

EURUSD

Euro prices are finding increased buying movement, with the MACD and the RSI showing increased chances for further buying to continue. The EMA200 is also nearing prices and is supporting the current movement. We anticipate and look for more buying opportunities.

USDJPY

The Yen is currently finding increased consolidation on the EMA200. The MACD is seeing potential for increased selling volume while the RSI also reflects a rise in further bearish momentum. The market will be looking for more clues on the path of monetary policy when Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is set to speak this week on Tuesday. Currently, the overall price action maintains its bearish structure [for USD/JPY].

USDCHF

The Franc is gaining at a level that has not been seen for a very long time. In a historical moment that shows weakness and doubt in the U.S. Dollar, the USD/CHF pair has fallen to a low not seen since the 2015 SNB event, highlighting the Franc's strength as a stable alternative to the Dollar. The MACD and the RSI are also finding further chances for a sell continuation [for USD/CHF]. This is something to look forward to and continue to watch, as there is a chance for prices to continue selling in the coming days.

USDCAD

The market for the CAD had shifted to a complete sell-off [for USD/CAD], but it lost ground against the Dollar towards the end of last weeks trading session, meaning USD/CAD rose. We can see that prices were rejected at the shift structure, leading to a consolidation or a potential buying shift. Thus, while our overall bias is bearish, the MACD and the RSI are currently finding increased bearish momentum and volume.