Daily Trading Scoop: What the Big Players Are Watching

Market Analysis

GOLD

Gold prices are trading lower, showing weakness after failing to break above the recent high during yesterday's session. This pullback is currently viewed as a technical correction toward the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA200) before a potential bullish continuation. The MACD indicates strong bearish volume, and the RSI has normalized from overbought conditions, reflecting the current selling pressure. While there is a risk of a bearish shift, the overall price action remains bullish. A decisive break below the EMA200, however, would warrant consideration of more bearish scenarios.

SILVER

Silver prices remain above the key high boundary point and continue to test this structure. We will maintain a neutral stance until there is a clear break of this level. However, a pullback to the EMA200 before another move higher seems likely. Nonetheless, a direct upward continuation remains a possibility.

DXY

The Dollar is selling off significantly, with both the MACD and RSI indicating increased bearish momentum and volume. We anticipate this selling pressure will continue.

This weakness is driven by several fundamental factors:

Trade Deals: Reports indicate that the U.S. and EU are moving closer to a trade agreement, potentially centered on a 15% baseline tariff. This follows a similar deal reached with Japan and signals that the U.S. may be softening its trade stance.

China Truce: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that the current tariff truce with China is likely to be extended beyond its August 12 expiration, further improving global risk sentiment.

Fed Policy: These developments have supported a rally in risk-sensitive assets like the Euro and Yen. While the Federal Reserve remains cautious, the fact that previous tariffs did not cause significant inflation has lessened these concerns, increasing market expectations for a rate cut later this year.

GBPUSD

British Pound (GBP): The Pound has risen significantly and is now testing a higher boundary. A sustained break above this level would signal a complete shift in the overall price momentum to bullish. Until then, we maintain a cautiously optimistic approach. Both the MACD and RSI confirm bullish momentum, although the MACD is signaling the potential for a retracement before the rally continues.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar has shifted strongly to the upside, fueled by progress on trade agreements and broad-based U.S. Dollar weakness. The improved risk sentiment is encouraging traders to move into higher-beta currencies like the Aussie. The price has decisively broken through a key resistance level, and the MACD and RSI reflect increased bullish momentum, supporting expectations for a buy continuation.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi has also shown a clear shift to bullish momentum. The MACD and RSI indicate growing buying strength, supporting expectations for a bullish continuation and more buying opportunities in the coming days.

EURUSD

The Euro is experiencing increased bullish momentum. As anticipated, the price tested the top of its range, bounced off the consolidation's midpoint, and is now rising again. This price action, combined with positive developments on a potential trade agreement with the U.S., suggests further buying opportunities.

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing increased bearish momentum and volume, signaling continued Yen strength. As noted yesterday, with the price action little changed, we continue to look for selling opportunities, especially while the price remains below the key pivot point.

USDCHF

The USD/CHF pair is selling off sharply as the Franc gains significant strength against the dollar. The price remains below the lower boundary of its consolidation range, and both the MACD and RSI support a bearish outlook. A continuation of the sell-off appears to be the most likely scenario.

USDCAD

The USD/CAD pair is showing signs of building bearish pressure. The RSI is approaching overbought levels, and the MACD may be exhibiting bearish divergence. These technical signals increase the probability of a sell-off, and we will be looking for selling opportunities in the coming days.