Key Economic Indicators: What to Watch Today

Market Analysis

GOLD

Gold prices fell further following stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data released last Thursday. Both the MACD and RSI show increased selling momentum and volume. With the end-of-month tariff deadline approaching, continued weakness is expected. Importantly, this recent decline has shifted the overall market momentum to bearish, leading us to anticipate further selling in the coming days.

SILVER

Silver prices are currently selling off after failing to hold the upper boundary as support. The MACD and RSI indicate growing bearish momentum. However, the market's broader bullish structure has not yet been invalidated. This suggests the current sell-off could be a deep pullback before a potential buying continuation, so we will monitor for signs of stabilization.

DXY

The Dollar is showing increased bullish movement as it tests the EMA200. The MACD and RSI also reflect a rise in bullish momentum and volume. Despite this current strength, the overall market structure remains bearish, so a full trend reversal has not yet occurred. Therefore, we will continue to look for overarching bearish opportunities.

On the fundamental side, the outlook for the dollar is strengthening, as the probability of a near-term interest rate cut appears to be diminishing.

"Theres increasing confidence that the economy won't be derailed by tariffs," said Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at GLOBALT in Atlanta. "In the meantime, companies are reporting good earnings, the economic numbers are coming in within the range and people want to own stocks."

Data from last Thursday showed that while the Manufacturing PMI indicated contraction, it was strongly offset by an exemplary performance in the Services PMI. This has eased concerns about the economic impact of tariffs and is likely to provide continued support for the dollar.

GBPUSD

The Pound is experiencing increased bearish momentum, a trend confirmed by both the RSI and MACD. The overall market structure has shifted to bearish, leading us to expect the sell-off to continue in the coming days.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar's overall trend remains bullish as it tests the EMA200 for support. However, the MACD and RSI are showing increased bearish momentum, suggesting the sell-off could continue. We will maintain our bullish bias unless a clear break of structure shifts the momentum to bearish.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is exhibiting a similar pattern to the Aussie dollar, testing the EMA200 as potential support before a possible continuation higher. Like the AUD, its short-term indicators (MACD and RSI) show bearish momentum. We will wait for a clear structural signal but still anticipate an eventual continuation of the uptrend.

EURUSD

The Euro is finding buying opportunities as it tests the EMA200. While the MACD shows increasing buying volume, the RSI is approaching overbought territory, which calls for some caution. Despite this, the bullish structure remains intact, and we will continue to look for buying opportunities.

USDJPY

The outlook for Japanese stocks is improving as trade tensions ease, which could lead to Yen weakness (a rise in USD/JPY). Over the weekend, President Trump announced a trade agreement with the European Union, boosting risk sentiment and reducing the appeal of the safe-haven Yen. Technically, the MACD and RSI reflect this growing bullish momentum for the pair as it tests a key structural pivot point. We will wait for a confirmed shift before acting.

USDCHF

The USD/CHF pair is consolidating as it tests the EMA200. Technical indicators show growing selling pressure on the Franc, which translates to buying pressure for this pair. Fundamentally, a risk-on environment and a stronger U.S. Dollar should also lead to Franc weakness (a higher USD/CHF). Given this alignment, we anticipate a bullish continuation for the pair.

USDCAD

The USD/CAD pair is showing increased strength as the CAD weakens against the dollar. The MACD and RSI indicate growing buying momentum. A break above the 1.37261 high would likely confirm a bullish shift in the market structure and lead to further gains.

COT Report Analysis

AUD - WEAK (5/5)

GBP - MIXED

CAD - WEAK (3/5)

EUR - STRONG (5/5)

JPY - STRONG (3/5)

CHF - WEAK (5/5)

USD - WEAK (5/5)

NZD - WEAK (5/5)

GOLD - STRONG (5/5)

SILVER - STRONG (5/5)