Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: Will Safe-Haven Demand Rise Again?

20/04/2026

Key Highlights

• Donald Trump accuses Iran of violating the ceasefire agreement following vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz

• Safe-haven sentiment remains elevated

• The U.S. Dollar Index begins to gain support

Market Recap

Trump Accuses Iran of Violating Ceasefire Agreement in the Strait of Hormuz

President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that Iran‘s attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz constituted a violation of the ceasefire agreement with the United States. He repeatedly warned that unless Iran agrees to terms to end the conflict, the United States may target Iran’s energy infrastructure.

“Iran decided to fire shots in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday — a complete violation of our ceasefire agreement!” he posted on Truth Social. “Thats not very good, is it？”

“We are offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they accept it, because if they do not, the United States will destroy every power plant and every bridge,” he added. “No more Mr. Nice Guy!”

These remarks came as diplomatic relations between the two sides remained fragile. Iran effectively reclosed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, citing the continued blockade of Iranian ports by the U.S. Navy. Just one day earlier, Iran had declared the waterway “fully open” under the current ceasefire.

While both sides accused each other of violations, disagreements also emerged regarding the prospects for a second round of talks. Two senior government officials told NBC News that Vice President J.D. Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner were expected to travel to Islamabad to continue negotiations with Iran.

Trump previously indicated that negotiators would arrive in Islamabad on Monday evening. The two sides held direct talks there last weekend, and the current two-week ceasefire is scheduled to expire on Wednesday.

However, Iranian officials rejected the prospect of new talks. Irans state news agency denied reports of a second round of negotiations in Islamabad, stating that under current conditions there is “no clear prospect” for further discussions.

Trump also claimed that Iran targeted vessels from France and the United Kingdom, although he provided no additional details. Maritime authorities reported that an Indian vessel was struck by gunfire and projectiles in the Strait. Iranian state media confirmed that warning shots were fired near two Indian vessels to force them to turn back.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who also serves as Irans chief negotiator, stated on national television that officials had “firmly expressed our demands,” adding that some issues had been resolved while others remained outstanding, and that a final agreement was still some distance away.

“If the ceasefire is not implemented, we will not continue negotiations — we will go to war,” he said. The Trump administration also confirmed that the blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect, with more than 20 vessels turned back since Monday.

Affected Financial Instruments

• U.S. Dollar

• Gold

• S&P 500 Index

Summary

The escalation surrounding Iran has renewed safe-haven demand in financial markets, supporting the U.S. Dollar Index in the short term. In contrast, precious metals may face downside pressure amid shifting market sentiment.

Todays Key Event Analysis

Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Today, markets will closely monitor the release of Canada‘s Consumer Price Index. Historical data suggests that Canada’s economic momentum has been gradually slowing, leading market participants to anticipate that the upcoming inflation reading may come in higher than expected.

Potentially Affected Markets

• U.S. Dollar

• Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

• U.S. Equity Indices

Todays Trading Bias

Long Position: Precious Metals

Market Sentiment Analysis

Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index is a key indicator used to measure market sentiment, reflecting whether investors are driven more by fear or greed.

The latest reading stands at 68 (Risk-On sentiment), compared to the previous level of 36, indicating that safe-haven demand has gradually eased.

Markets are increasingly digesting developments surrounding the Iran conflict, leading to a cooling of risk aversion. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index has started to weaken, while risk assets — including equities and cryptocurrencies — have begun to trend higher.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Gold)

Following President Donald Trumps announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, safe-haven demand declined significantly, pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield lower and indirectly supporting gold prices.

Technical indicators show that gold has broken above the 4844 resistance level, suggesting that the bullish momentum may persist in the short term.

Trading Strategy:

Maintain a bullish bias on gold, with key support to watch around the 4800 level.