Mohicans markets ：January 4, 2023 - MHM European Perspective

Market Overview

At the beginning of the Asian session on Wednesday, January 4, the dollar index oscillated narrowly and is currently trading around 104.70. It has held on to most of its overnight gains. The dollar jumped 0.9% on Tuesday, hitting an intraday high of more than two weeks to 104.86, closing at 104.68. U.S. construction spending rebounded unexpectedly in November, and the euro fell due to moderating inflation, and the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its December meeting during the New York session on Wednesday.

Spot gold is shaking higher and is currently trading near $1848.18 per ounce, on track to record four consecutive daily gains. Market concerns about the global recession to gold prices to provide support, and the market is expected to the Federal Reserve in 2023 will further slow the pace of interest rate increases, or even cut interest rates at the end of the year. U.S. bond yields fell to a new low of more than a week, also to gold prices to provide upward momentum.

This trading day will usher in the U.S. December ISM manufacturing PMI, the market is expected to be 48.5. If in line with expectations, it will be two consecutive months below the RongKu line 50, and is the worst performance since June 2020, the expectation is biased in favor of gold prices. In addition, this trading day will also usher in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting, the market seeks more clues about the Fed's future monetary policy, investors need to be concerned.

U.S. oil traded at $77.18 per barrel; oil prices sank nearly 4% on Tuesday, weighed down by weak demand data, a gloomy economic outlook and a stronger dollar; the market awaits the Fed minutes, with investors worried about the Fed's path of rate hikes.

After four consecutive rate hikes of 75 basis points, the Fed slowed the pace of rate hikes to 50 basis points in December, but stressed the need to keep rates in restrictive territory to keep inflation down.

Bipan Rai, head of North American foreign exchange strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) Capital Markets, said investors will be watching the Fed's level of concern about the persistence of inflation and its thoughts on the labor market, but the minutes of the meeting may not have the same impact on the market as the upcoming employment and inflation data.

The still-strong employment situation is seen as giving the Fed more room to continue raising interest rates as it struggles to reduce stubbornly high inflation. The much-anticipated December jobs report will be released on Friday, and December consumer price data will be released on January 12.

Even though the Fed maintains a hawkish tone, federal funds rate futures traders still expect to cut rates this year. They expect the federal funds rate to peak at 4.98% in June, then fall back to 4.57% by the end of the year.

Mohicans Markets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on January 4, 2023, Beijing time. 

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1817-1833-1856

Overall Large Oscillation Range: 1730-1756-1780-1801-1817-1833-1856-1880

Spot gold in the subsequent period, 1817-1833-1856 can be operated as an intraday range of bullish and bearish; high throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on January 4. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3

Overall Large Oscillation Range: 20.6-21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1

Spot silver in the subsequent period, 23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3 can be operated as an intraday range of bullish and bearish; high throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on January 4. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 75.1-77.3-78.5-79.9-81.3

Overall Large Oscillation Range: 

70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1-77.3-78.5-79.9-81.3-82.1-83.5

Crude Oil in the subsequent period, 75.1-77.3-78.5-79.9-81.3 can be operated as an intraday range of bullish and bearish; high throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on January 4. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.0460-1.0570-1.0690

Overall Large Oscillation Range: 

1.0290-1.0360-1.0460-1.0570-1.0690-1.0755

EURUSD in the subsequent period, 1.0460-1.0570-1.0690 can be operated as an intraday range of bullish and bearish; high throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on January 4. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.1830-1.1920-1.2030-1.2135

Overall Large Oscillation Range: 

1.1610-1.1830-1.1920-1.2030-1.2135-1.2250-1.2400-1.2470

GBPUSD in the subsequent period, 1.1920-1.2085-1.2250-1.2400 can be operated as an intraday range of bullish and bearish; high throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on January 4. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.