MHMarkets：November 07, 2023--Fundamental Reminder

TBD A new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products has been opened.

11:30  AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (NOV/07)

18:00  EUR PPI MoM (SEP)

21:30  USDBalance of Trade (SEP)

23:00 Fed Governor Waller speaks.

The next day at 01:00, the EIA releases its monthly short-term energy Outlook report.

The next day at 01:00, Fed's Williams attends the discussion.

The next day at 02:30, Fed Logan speaks.

MHMarkets Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

The dollar index recovered some ground on Monday as the market's focus turned to remarks from Fed officials including Powell, falling as low as it has since Sept. 20 before closing up 0.209% at 105.3.

Treasury yields rallied collectively, with the 10-year Treasury yield at last close at 4.647%, off a more than one-month low; The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, closed at 4.941%, off a two-month low.

Spot gold fluctuated to the downside, losing the $1,980 mark late in the day before settling down 0.53% at $1,978.04 an ounce. Spot silver settled down 0.46% at $23.03 an ounce.

Oil prices traded sideways, supported by Saudi Arabia and Russia's confirmation of supply curbs through the end of the year. WTI crude hovered near a more than two-month low before finally settling up 0.05% at $80.86 a barrel; Brent crude settled up 0.04% at $85.18 a barrel.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher and lower, with the Dow up 0.1%, the S&P 500 up 0.18% and the Nasdaq up 0.3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index was down slightly, with Douyu (DOYU.O) down 10% and Huya down 2.5%. Tesla (TSLA.O) closed down 0.3% after rising more than 2.5% early in the session, while Apple (AAPL.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) both rose more than 1.5%.

Major European stock indexes broadly fell. Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.38%, Germany's DAX30 index closed down 0.35%, Britain's FTSE 100 index closed flat, France's CAC40 index closed down 0.46%, Spain's IBEX35 index fell 0.56% and Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 0.29%.

Market Focus

1. The U.S. is seeking to buy up to 3 million barrels of oil to replenish the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with the shipments set to be delivered in January 2024, the Energy Department said Monday.

2. New York Fed indicator: Global supply chain pressure falls to a record low; Fed Survey: US credit conditions continued to tighten but at a slower pace in Q3, with a general decline in loan demand.

3. According to the Wall Street Journal: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari doesn't think the rate hike cycle is over. Lisa Cook, Fed Governor: The recent rise in long-term U.S. bond yields may not have been driven by investor expectations of further interest rate hikes. She has kept a close eye on the vulnerabilities of nonbank financial institutions as Fed policy tightened financial conditions.

4. Latest developments on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Biden discussed the possibility of a tactical ceasefire with the Israeli Prime minister; The Iranian president will travel to Saudi Arabia on Nov. 12 for the first time since the resumption of diplomacy; Israeli military spokesman: Israel is closing in on Hamas positions in Gaza. A series of explosions were heard at the al-Umar military base in Syria's Deir al-Zor province on Monday (local time), the independent Syrian newspaper Al-Faw reported.

5. Venezuela negotiates with oil companies to increase production.

6. The final services PMI for the Eurozone in October came in at 47.8, a 32-month low; The final composite PMI for the eurozone came in at 46.5 in October, a 35-month low.

7. ECB Governing Council Holtzman: The ECB must be prepared to raise interest rates again if needed.

Institutional Perspective

01

WFC

【WFC：WFC chief financial officer has said the company is losing employees at a slower rate than expected and the bank may spend higher severance payments to reduce headcount.】

WFC Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said this summer that the company was losing employees at a slower rate than expected and that the bank might spend more on severance to reduce its headcount. He reiterated that message in mid-October, telling investors that the company believes there are still more positions to cut as employee turnover remains low, which could lead to additional severance payments next year.

Staff turnover at Pitney Bowes has also fallen so far this year. The shipping and mail service company has managed to keep the turnover rate low overall by offering interns alternative positions, said Andrew Gold, the company's chief human resources officer.

02

MS

【MS：This investment bank has been cutting staff in recent months, partly because of low internal turnover at the 80,000-strong Wall Street firm】

MS Chief Executive James Gorman said on a call with investors in mid-October that this investment bank had been cutting jobs in recent months, in part because of low internal turnover at the 80,000-person Wall Street firm. “Wall Street needs really good employees, and we're actually having problems,” Mr. Gorman said. We have a very low employee turnover rate, which is why we are cutting staff.

03

Morgan Chase

【Morgan Chase：Think US stock “knee jerk type” rebound will not last】

Stocks will soon lose their allure for investors again as the prospect of persistently high interest rates and slowing growth returns to view, Morgan Chase 's Marko Kolanovic said after the stock market posted its best week of the year. The bank's chief market strategist said in a note to clients on Monday that falling bond yields and dovish central bank meetings were “ positive knee jerk type for equities” in the short term, but that the growth and policy trade-offs would remain challenging heading into year-end.