Focus on inflation and growth data, along with the RBNZ meeting

Monday 27th: US New Home Sales are due, along with the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.

On Tuesday 28th: The German GfK Consumer Confidence index is released.

On Wednesday 29th: Australias Monthly CPI Indicator will be published, the RBNZ meets on Monetary Policy, German Inflation figures are due and the US reports its GDP for the third quarter.

On Thursday 30th: Chinas NBS Manufacturing PMI is released, along with Flash Inflation data for France, Italy and the EU, Canadian GDP data, US Personal Spending and Income, and the US PCE Price Index.

On Friday 1st: Chinas Caixin Manufacturing PMI is released, Canada publishes Employment data, and the US releases its ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Weekly outlook

This coming week, investors will be closely monitoring inflation statistics as some nations start to see their figures approach the point where central banks may soon be forced to contemplate cutting interest rates.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will also be interesting to monitor when it meets to decide on its monetary policy for the next month. The Kiwis will be relieved that inflation has started to meaningfully decline, as food inflation was shown to have fallen from 8% to 6.3% in October and Q3 inflation also fell to 5.6% from 6% in October. However, the bank could decide to be cautious and keep rates unchanged until at least the next year.

Monday 27th of November

US New Home Sales are due to be reported today at 3:00 PM GMT. September witnessed a seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate of 759 thousand for new single-family homes in the US, an increase of 12.3% from the previous month's revised 676 thousand and surpassing the market consensus of 680 thousand. Demand for new housing and homebuilding has increased in response to the limited supply of previously owned houses, however a slight decline is forecast for October to around 730 thousand.

The overall business activity index for manufacturing in Texas, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, decreased to -19.2 in October from -18.1 the previous month. This is the 18th consecutive negative reading, indicating a persistent decline in economic conditions. A slight improvement to around -17 is expected for November.

Tuesday 28th of November

In November, the German GfK Consumer Climate Indicator dropped for a third consecutive month to -28.1, the lowest level in seven months, and below expectations of -26.6. The primary cause of the decrease in consumer mood was the increase in food and energy costs, which is weakening individual families' spending power. When the new data is released at 7:00 AM GMT, expectations are for a small bump to -26.

Major Earnings Releases:

● easyJet (EZJ.L)

Wednesday 29th of November

Australias Monthly CPI Indicator is due to be published at 12:30 AM GMT today. The Index increased 5.6% in the 12 months ending in September, surpassing estimates of 5.4% growth and reaching its highest point in five months. Inflation is expected to drop minimally in October to around 5.5%.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Monetary Policy this week, with the Decision Statement due at 1:00 AM GMT today with a Press Conference at 2:00 AM GMT. At its October meeting, the RBNZ kept the official cash rate at 5.5%, continuing the rate pause for a third consecutive meeting and in line with market expectations. The board persisted in its assessment that financial constraints were limiting spending and alleviating cost pressure, but inflation was still too high to consider a rate cut. Analysts expect the bank will continue to hold rates again this month.

Preliminary Inflation results for Germany are due to be reported today at 1:00 PM GMT. In October the rate was verified to be 3.8% year over year, a significant decrease from the 4.5% recorded the previous month. Only a slight decrease to around 3.7% is expected for November.

The US releases figures on its Q3 GDP Growth Rate today at 1:30 PM GMT. The advance estimate revealed that the US economy expanded by an annualized 4.9% in Q3, the most since the final quarter of 2021, surpassing market expectations of 4.3% and a 2.1% expansion in Q2.

Major Earnings Releases:

● Dassault Aviation (AM)

● Rallye (RAL)

Thursday 30th of November

The official NBS Manufacturing PMI for China surprisingly dropped from 50.2 in September to 49.5 in October, missing market expectations of 50.2. When the November data is released at 1:30 AM GMT, expectations are for a slight improvement to 49.9 but the industry would still be considered in contraction.

A number of major economies release their November Flash Inflation data across the day today, including France, Italy and the EU. The Euro Area's inflation rate was verified in October to be 2.9% year over year, the lowest since July 2021 but still over the ECB's objective of 2%. This was mainly due to a drop in energy costs and a decrease in food inflation. France is expecting to see a drop from 4% to 3.8% and Italy may see a dip to around 1.5% from 1.7%.

Unable to capitalize on the 0.6% increase seen in the previous quarter, GDP growth in Canada slowed to a halt in the second quarter of 2023. In a reversal from the strong growth seen earlier in the year, this outcome highlighted the degree to which the Bank of Canada's recent interest rate hikes are impacting the Canadian economy. The Q3 figures, released at 1:30 PM GMT, are expected to show a similar result of 0% growth.

The US's core PCE price index rose 0.3% from August to September this year, the largest monthly gain in four months and in line with market expectations. This was an acceleration from the 0.1% increase seen in the previous month. When the new data is released at 1:30 PM GMT, analysts expect this figure will hold steady at 0.3% for October month over month.

US Personal Income and Spending data is also due for release today at 1:30 PM GMT. Following a 0.4% gain in August and slightly below market expectations of 0.4%, personal income in the US climbed by 0.3% from the previous month in September and is expected to continue at this rate for October. Personal spending is expected to fall slightly from 0.7% to 0.4% month over month.

Major Earnings Releases:

● Dell Technologies (DELL)

● Remy Cointreau SA (RCO.PA)

Friday 1st of December

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.6 in September to 49.5 in October, below the market expectation of 50.8. With production continuing to dip, this indicated the manufacturing sector had contracted for the first time since July and the economic recovery was still precarious. However an increase to around 50.2 is expected for November, when the results are released at 1:45 AM GMT.

A range of employment data is due today from Canada, including the Unemployment Rate, and Employment Change among others. The Unemployment rate increased in October, reaching 5.7%, up from 5.5% the previous month and beyond market estimates of 5.6%. Meanwhile, the economy gained 17.5K jobs in October, falling short of market estimates of 22.5K but representing the third consecutive month of worker increase. The latest figures are due at 1:30 PM GMT.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.7 in October, down from a 10-month high of 49 the previous month, indicating the eleventh consecutive decline in the US manufacturing sector. When the newest data is released at 3:00 PM GMT, a further dip to around 46.5 is forecast