ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Pulls Back, Battles Around $4,300

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on December 30 (Tuesday), spot gold attempted a rebound but quickly lost momentum as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Gains narrowed through the session, with prices oscillating between buyers and sellers after the recent surge.

In early Asian trading on December 31 (Wednesday), spot gold stayed range-bound. At the time of writing, it was trading near USD 4,336.95 per ounce. Volatility has eased, and market sentiment has turned more cautious.

Global Headlines

1) FED Minutes Highlight Policy Divisions

The FED released minutes from its December 9–10 FOMC meeting on Tuesday. Officials voted with divisions to cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the policy range to 3.5%–3.75%. Most members supported easing to stabilize the labor market, while others warned that inflation progress may be slowing. Policy uncertainty remains elevated.

2) Markets Scale Back Near-Term Cuts

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January 2026 stands at 14.9%, while the chance of no change is 85.1%. By March, markets price in a 45.2% probability of cumulative easing. Expectations for rapid policy loosening have clearly cooled.

3) FED Signals Treasury Purchase Plans

The FED indicated in the minutes that, following the launch of the RMP, net purchases of short-term Treasuries could reach about USD 220 billion over the first 12 months. Initial monthly purchases may start near USD 40 billion before tapering. The plan is seen as a tool to stabilize financial conditions.

4) Zelensky Signals Willingness To Talk

On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that any dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin would focus on territorial issues and the origins of the conflict. While trust remains limited, the comments were seen as leaving room for future negotiations.

5) Poland Sees Possible Peace Window

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Tuesday that peace in Ukraine could emerge within weeks, with U.S. security support playing a key role. However, he stressed that uncertainty remains high. The remarks briefly eased extreme geopolitical risk pricing.

6) World Gold Council Flags Upside Risks

The World Gold Council noted that golds 2025 rally has been driven by geopolitical risks, lower interest rate expectations, a weaker dollar, and strong investment demand. It added that if global risks intensify further, gold could test USD 5,000 per ounce in 2026.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

From a technical perspective, spot gold has entered a high-level consolidation phase after sharp earlier swings. Momentum has slowed, and neither side has a clear catalyst to extend a one-way move. The key pivot remains at USD 4,345 per ounce. Holding above this level would support a rebound toward USD 4,405 and USD 4,427. A break below could reopen downside tests toward USD 4,300 and USD 4,270.

The RSI lacks a clear direction, reflecting growing market divergence. In the near term, price action is likely to remain range-bound as traders wait for fresh macro signals. With limited holiday liquidity, investors should closely monitor market developments and risk conditions.

Trading Notice

Global markets will be closed for the New Year holiday tomorrow. Lower liquidity may amplify price swings. Unfilled orders will roll over to the next trading session. Please manage positions and pending orders carefully.

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