Commodities Outlook: Geopolitics Keep Oil Volatile, Gold Reacts to Tariffs

Commodity markets are trading on high alert as geopolitical friction in major oil-producing nations clashes with US trade policy shifts.

WTI Crude: The Venezuela & Iran Risk Premium

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading near $60.35, recovering modestly as traders assess supply risks from two fronts:

• Venezuela: The US Senate narrowly voted to uphold President Trumps authority to potentially utilize military options. The legislative “green light” adds a permanent risk premium to oil prices.
• Iran: Ongoing civil protests in Iran are being monitored for potential impacts on production or export capabilities.

Despite these factors, WTI struggled to hold the $62.20 high, with a robust US Dollar capping gains.

Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver

Precious metals experienced a flash drop, with Silver plunging significantly and Gold facing selling pressure linked to new trade tariffs.

Technicals

• The Logic: While tariffs generate long-term inflation (bullish for Gold), the immediate impact is a rush to cash (USD) and liquidity covering.
• Ratio Signal: The Gold/Silver ratio has dipped below 50, a rare signal often preceding violent mean reversion.
• Key Levels: Spot Gold remains in “sell rallies” mode, with resistance near $2,650 and support tested by the stronger Dollar.