ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Surges 2.3%, Tops $4,130

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on July 2 (Thursday), spot gold extended its gains, rising 2.3% to close at USD 4,123.61 per ounce. US NFP increased by only 57,000 in June, pushing the USD index lower and supporting a further rise in gold.

On July 3 (Friday) during early Asian trading, spot gold remained elevated around USD 4,130 per ounce. The short-term recovery trend remains intact.

Global Headlines

US Payrolls Add Just 57,000

US seasonally adjusted NFP increased by 57,000 in June, well below market expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, compared with the expected 4.3%, while the number of unemployed people stood at 7.1 million. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month on month, with annual growth accelerating from 3.4% to 3.5%.

Warsh Focuses On Internal Coordination

New FED Chair Kevin Warsh spent most of his first week meeting with internal staff. His external schedule included breakfast with Treasury Secretary Bessent and meetings with former FED Governor Milan and Brookings Institution researcher Nellie Liang. The FED Chairs schedule will be published monthly on the official website.

FED Hike Expectations Ease Further

According to CME FEDWatch data, markets price an 82.4% probability that the FED keeps rates unchanged in July, while the chance of a 25bp hike stands at 17.6%. By December, the probability of no change is 23.5%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike stands at 42.2%. Markets also price a 34.3% chance of at least 50bp in hikes.

Trump Says Iran Nears Agreement

Trump said progress is being made in US-Iran peace talks and that Iran has “almost agreed” to all US conditions. He stressed that Washington is not seeking regime change. The main objective remains preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The next round of talks is expected shortly after the funeral of Irans former Supreme Leader.

Kuwait Restores Crude Output Rapidly

Kuwait is accelerating the recovery of Persian Gulf oil exports following the temporary US-Iran peace agreement. During the final ten days of June, crude production recovered to as much as 1.9 million barrels per day. Before disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, output stood at around 2.5 million barrels per day.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

Spot gold continues to rebound, but 4,245 remains the key pivot area. If prices regain and hold above 4,245, upside potential may expand further, with resistance levels at 4,385 and 4,425.

If gold stays below 4,245, support at 4,170 and 4,110 remains in focus. Overall, gold is still in a recovery phase while testing major resistance.

RSI is moving higher, showing continued improvement in short-term momentum. However, a sustained break above 4,245 is still required to confirm stronger upside potential. Markets are currently pricing US employment data, the FED rate path, and progress in US-Iran negotiations. Short-term volatility may remain elevated.

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