Profits on Paper, Losses at the Border: What Traders Must Know About Vietnam

Vietnam is making waves in global trade headlines this year. Fruit exports are soaring, shrimp is dominating Chinese markets, and wood products are gaining traction in ESG-sensitive regions. On the surface, the numbers suggest a roaring success. But for traders on the ground, a different picture is emerging — one where deals fall through not due to demand, but because of delays, documentation, and tightening international rules.

At EBC, we are actively monitoring both the growth stories and the fault lines forming underneath. The challenge in Vietnam is not production, but performance at the point of delivery. And in fast-moving agricultural and soft commodity markets, that distinction matters.

High Demand, High Stakes

In the first seven months of 2025, Vietnam's fruit and vegetable exports topped USD3.8 billion, with durian, coconut, dragon fruit, and lychee leading the way. Durian alone accounted for USD3.3 billion in 2024, followed by a further USD360 million in June this year. Meanwhile, Vietnamese coconuts have gone from regional underdogs to premium exports, now commanding USD7.26 per kilogramme, up from USD1.21 in 2022.

These figures reflect strong international appetite, particularly from Asia and the Middle East. But they also set the stage for a frustrating reality — even with buyers ready, produce is failing to move.

Structural Delays Undercut Trade Momentum

Vietnam's export bottlenecks are increasingly being driven by regulatory lags. While production capacity and global demand have expanded rapidly, the country's certification systems, customs inspection processes, and documentation workflows have failed to keep pace.

The result？ A trade model where goods are ready, markets are waiting, but transactions fall through because of bureaucratic congestion.

As David Barrett, CEO of EBC Financial Group (UK) Ltd., explains: “Vietnam is clearly winning in terms of trade visibility and sectoral growth. But traders must watch both the growth story and the friction points. The country's booming exports are becoming increasingly segmented — what's thriving abroad may still stumble at the border.”

Shrimp Booms in China, But for How Long？

Seafood is another standout performer. Vietnam's shrimp exports to China (including Hong Kong) reached nearly USD595 million between January and June 2025, up more than 80% year-on-year. This is the first time China has overtaken the United States as Vietnam's largest shrimp buyer, a shift driven by post-COVID reopening and improved logistics.

Wood Gains ESG Ground

Sustainability is the differentiator here. Many Vietnamese exporters are now adopting FSC (Forest Stewardship Council) certification, aligning their supply with ESG compliance standards in the EU, US, and other developed markets. Products such as furniture and MDF boards are benefiting most, opening the door to premium pricing and long-term institutional interest.

EU Compliance Keeps Traders on Alert

While ESG gains help with Western buyers, traders targeting the European Union face another kind of pressure. The EU has intensified checks on pesticide levels, origin traceability, and cold-chain documentation. In response, Vietnamese authorities have issued new regulations to avoid trans-shipment violations, but the adjustment has not been seamless.

The effects are real. Clearance backlogs, inconsistent customs handling, and gaps in exporter-readiness have created new headaches. In many cases, the cost of missed compliance is not just a fine — it's the inability to deliver at all.

What Traders Should Watch Next

Vietnam's trajectory remains strong, but its growing pains are increasingly visible. Traders looking to capitalise on its export boom must pay equal attention to friction points.

Delayed certificates, shifting EU protocols, and overloaded cold-chain logistics can erode profits faster than prices can rise. For traders in perishable goods or short-dated contracts, a one-week delay may be the difference between filling an order and writing it off entirely.

EBC continues to track these developments in real time. We are committed to helping our clients price risk accurately, spot compliance trends early, and identify where momentum may be interrupted before it hits the market.

Disclaimer: This article reflects the observations of EBC Financial Group and all its global entities. It is not financial or investment advice. Trading in commodities and foreign exchange (FX) involves significant risk of loss, potentially exceeding your initial investment. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions, as EBC Financial Group and its entities are not liable for any damages arising from reliance on this information.